The VC community has made it clear that this looks to be the year of the super-app; the year in which we’ll never leave our home screens (because not leaving our homes last year wasn’t enough). The thesis is that some (hopefully less stringent) version of WeChat will finally take shape in the US, allowing us to partake in all of the activities that we tend to from a single channel.
But the same community also sports the opinion that web3 will crystallize this year, with a theme of decentralization (from platform ownership to content generation) at its core. The sheer number of decentralized social networks, NFT-locked communities, and specialty community-serving apps leads me to believe that not all of them will make it to the home screen. How do investors and forward thinkers marry these two ideas, or should we conclude that one will win over the other?
In thinking through which companies stand to become super-apps, there are a few contenders. Though probably not in the lead, we might look to TikTok, which recently announced that it will add TikTok-viral food delivery into its mix of products; users need not leave the app to have Emily Mariko’s salmon bowl (my personal favorite) delivered to their doorsteps. Snapchat has also explored mini-apps which quite literally assumes its status as a super-app, though these third party apps for meditation and study collaboration have not reached any notable level of traction. WhatsApp has experimented with banking products and an Uber integration in India, as well as SMB product discovery in South America.
The list of prospective players goes on, but Uber and Meta are surely in the running, in addition to Block (previously Square), which seems to be a likely contender. I can imagine a world in which Tidal (80% owned by Block) supports music discovery, ticket transactions happen seamlessly through Square, fans tweet about it (via Galloway’s prediction that Twitter will one day tank its earnings and enable Block to buy it cheap) and somehow hail a ride to a great evening.
This is all possible and actually very exciting from a customer acquisition perspective, given the demand for first-party data, as we continue to see GDPR-inspired regulations roll out within the US.
But while there could be a world (or a year) in which we hardly leave our home screens and this one-size-fits-all application that we’ve manifested is in fact enough to satisfy our discovery and content consumption needs, I don’t think it will be. I think that this year has shown us that we crave a sense of unique belonging, one which a single super-app could not support, assuming it’s not entirely personalized.
I say this given the fact that the discourse surrounding the super-app has been largely focused around its media applications, as the majority of potential contenders operate in the media space on their own. So while I am bearish on the potential for a media-focused super-app to satisfy the many needs that media necessitates (engagement, fandom, community), I do see a compelling argument for a super-app which supports things less desirable than attending, say, a concert (telehealth, banking and e-commerce, ride hailing and food delivery, etc).
For the industries and endeavors that lean on the communities which they support (namely media or really anything tangentially related these days), it seems that for a super-app to work, it can’t be that super — or there just needs to be many of them.
I do think that 2021 has shown us that data scarcity has real and negative effects on customer acquisition; a solution is necessary and near. In order for anyone to win their rightful consumer, brands and apps alike must lean on one another for proprietary data. How might they do this? Well, perhaps via “super-apps” or something similar. In other words, it may be in some of their best interests to partner and offer unseen-before bundles to like-minded consumers in exchange for data, creating a world in which everyone wins their deserved subscription fees at a lower CAC.
Overall, while a trend towards platform decentralization does seem contradictory to speculation about a super-app this 2022, the sheer amount of decentralization and rise of niche content platforms might necessitate bundling, along with macro trends which support first as opposed to third-party data acquisition. This is exciting, as it would allow for both upselling opportunities for businesses and deeper engagement for consumers, while addressing CAC concerns and ensuring better data privacy.
I look forward to watching the potential rise of highly personalized super-apps plural, as we move towards a decentralized content landscape in which serving the precise, specialty interests of the consumer is at the forefront.